Analytical Approach

The project will bring together the state-of-the-art technologies of active remote sensing, meteorological surveillance radar, and interpretable machine learning to transform our understanding of the habitat needs of birds during migration by addressing: 

  • Which aspects of forest and landscape structure contribute to stopover habitat use during migration? 
  • Are these habitat features the same during breeding and, if not, what is the biggest misalignment in habitat needs? 

This information will address one of the most pressing problems in bird conservation science: How and where can forest management enhance habitat suitability for bird species using the same landscapes during multiple phases of the annual cycle? 

We will address these questions in the context of goals and needs of local forest stewards and users and thereby learn how active forest management, which is currently employed to enhance breeding habitat, influences bird species during breeding and migratory stopover. Ultimately, this will transform our ability to manage landscapes supporting species throughout the full annual cycle. 

For this project we are combining remote sensing of forest structure, weather-surveillance radar, and interpretable machine learning to understand how forest structure influences habitat of breeding and migrating birds. We will build habitat suitability models by combining forest structural metrics with other environmental variables (e.g. land cover, vegetation composition, and topography) known to influence bird habitat use. To train these models, we will characterize habitat usage during the breeding season using observations of bird species occurrence from the Virginia Breeding Bird Atlas and during migration with stopover density measurements collected by weather radar. We can then uncover which habitat characteristics increase or decrease suitability for different species and different phases of the annual cycle. Working with the project team we will develop maps of future habitat suitability based on potential management scenarios that aid in forest management decision-making. We will simultaneously gain ecological insight into the habitat needs of migratory birds during multiple phases of the annual cycle—insight that can help inform management across Appalachia.